The Streak Ends.
The Real Test
Starts Now.
August TRREB data is in. Sales down 2.1%, ending a five-month rebound. Average price back under $1 million. But the number that actually matters is what happens in the next three weeks.
Toronto home sales fell in August, ending a five-month rebound. That’s the headline everywhere today.
Here’s what nobody adds: August, January, and December are the three months that tell you the least about a market. Sales volume is always down. Fewer people are paying attention. And sellers who list in August usually need to sell — otherwise they’d have waited for after Labour Day.
So a 2.1% decline in August is close to meaningless on its own. If it had come in up 2.1%, that wouldn’t have meant much either.
What does matter is the trend underneath. New listings down 14.1%. Active listings down 11.3%. Year-to-date, new listings are down 15.5% while sales are actually up 2.3%. That’s a market slowly tightening on the supply side while demand holds steady.
And in about three weeks, we get the answer to the only question that counts this fall.
“Don’t read too much into a single August. Read the trend — and then watch what happens the week after Labour Day.”
🏙️ City of Toronto — August 2026
Let’s start where most of my clients actually buy and sell: inside the 416. All figures below are City of Toronto only, verified against the official TRREB Market Watch report for August 2026.
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What Each Segment Is Actually Doing
The citywide average is nearly useless for making a decision. Four property types, four completely different markets — here’s where each one stands on inventory, which is the number that leads price.
Nearly 5,000 active condo listings in the City of Toronto — roughly 57% of every property currently for sale in the 416. At 5.5 months of inventory, 96% of asking, and close to 40 days on market, this is where buyers still have genuine leverage. It’s also the longest days-on-market of any segment by a clear margin.
Semi-detached at 2.6 months and 100% of asking is not the same market as condo apartments at 5.5 months and 96% of asking. Same city. Same month. Completely different rules.
Toronto’s 2026 Trend — Listings Down, Sales Holding
One month tells you very little. Eight months tells you a lot. Here’s what the City of Toronto has actually done all year, month by month.
Year-to-Date: The Real Story
Put those two numbers side by side and you get the whole picture. Sales up 2.3%. New listings down 15.5%. More transactions happening with meaningfully less to choose from.
The optimistic read: that’s improving market health. The cautious read: it’s measured against a 2025 that was a 25-to-30 year low in sales volume. The honest answer sits between the two — real improvement, modest scale, off a very weak base.
Where are the investors?
Still largely absent. This remains an end-user market — people buying homes to live in them. That’s the main reason sales volume isn’t climbing faster despite falling supply.
There’s a reasonable argument that their continued absence is a benefit for first-time buyers and families who aren’t competing against that extra layer of demand. But it also caps how high total volume can realistically go until they return.
📊 GTA-Wide Market Update — August 2026
Now the wider picture. These are the numbers that make headlines — the entire Greater Toronto Area, covering the 416 plus Peel, York, Durham, Halton and beyond.
Worth keeping straight: the widely reported 5,057 sales figure is GTA-wide. The City of Toronto accounted for 1,767 of those across all home types. Both numbers are correct — they just answer different questions.
| Metric | Aug 2026 | Aug 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 5,057 | 5,168 | −2.1% |
| New Listings | 12,075 | 14,052 | −14.1% |
| Active Listings | 24,482 | 27,594 | −11.3% |
| Average Price | $993,410 | $1,021,300 | −2.7% |
| Avg. Days on Market (LDOM) | 35 | 33 | +6.1% |
| Avg. Property DOM | 51 | 49 | +4.1% |
Sales & Price by Property Type — GTA-Wide Total
These are GTA-wide figures (416 + 905 combined), which is what most headlines report.
| Type | Sales | Sales YoY | Avg Price | Price YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 2,399 | +0.5% | $1,288,669 | −1.8% |
| Semi-Detached | 439 | +0.9% | $931,665 | −5.0% |
| Townhouse | 832 | −9.5% | $786,817 | −8.6% |
| Condo Apartment | 1,330 | −2.6% | $617,593 | −3.6% |
Why the townhouse number looks worse than it is
Townhouse prices in the 416 appear down 12.9%. That reads like a crash. It isn’t. There simply weren’t many townhouse sales in the sample — 45 freehold townhouse transactions in the entire City of Toronto. When the transaction count is that low, average price becomes extremely sensitive to which specific properties happened to close that month.
Same caution applies to condos. Citywide headlines often suggest 10%+ declines. In the 416, condo apartments came in at −2.1% year-over-year, and have shown roughly that same figure for several months running. The realistic day-to-day softening most buyers and sellers actually experience is closer to 5–8%.
🍂 The September Test — What Actually Decides This Fall
August numbers aren’t meaningless. But September will tell us far more about where this market is heading than the last three months combined.
What happens in the next three weeks
In the days following Labour Day, a large volume of new listings typically hits the market across every property type. That’s a completely normal seasonal pattern — it’s how the fall market is supposed to work. It is not a red flag on its own.
The open question is the one that matters: will buyer demand be there to absorb it?
What I’ll be watching
If new listings arrive and get absorbed — sales climb to meet the supply, months of inventory holds flat or drops, and days on market stays stable — that’s the confirmation that this market has genuinely turned. It would set up 2027 as the first year in a while with real upward pricing pressure.
If new listings arrive and sit — inventory climbs back toward 5–6 months across more property types, days on market extends past 40 — that tells us the demand side isn’t ready yet, and we’re likely looking at another year of sideways trading before prices move meaningfully.
Both outcomes are still live. Anyone telling you they know which one is coming is guessing.
What this means for your decision right now
If you’re buying: the window between now and mid-October is historically one of the better ones. Sellers who list in September want to close before the holidays. Condo buyers in particular have real leverage — 5.5 months of inventory and 96% of asking is a negotiating environment.
If you’re selling: price it right the first time. With a wave of new competition arriving post-Labour Day, the listings that get traction are the ones priced correctly out of the gate. In semi-detached and well-positioned detached, you’re still in a market where sharp pricing creates competition. In condos, the market decides — not the list price.
🔎 Buyers Looking Right Now — Could You Be Their Match?
These buyers are ready, qualified, and specific. If you’re thinking of selling — or know someone who might be — one of these could be your match.
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Properties I recently represented — real deals, real results.
❓ Toronto Real Estate — Your Questions, Answered
The questions I get asked most often right now, answered honestly with current data.
Did Toronto home sales actually drop in August 2026?
Yes, but barely. GTA sales came in at 5,057 versus 5,168 in August 2025 — a decline of 2.1%. That ended a five-month streak of year-over-year gains, which is why it made headlines. But August is one of the three lowest-volume months of the year alongside December and January. A 2% move in either direction during a slow month is statistical noise, not a trend. The more useful number is year-to-date: sales are up 2.3% while new listings are down 15.5%.
Why did Toronto’s average home price fall below $1 million?
The GTA average came in at $993,410 in August 2026, down 2.7% year-over-year. Two things are happening. First, August is seasonally slow and the mix of properties selling skews toward more affordable homes, which pulls the average down mechanically. Second, prices genuinely are softer than last year. The same dip below $1M happened in January 2026 and reversed by March. Expect the average to climb back above $1 million in September as the fall market resumes.
Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market in Toronto right now?
Both, depending entirely on what you’re buying. Semi-detached homes in the City of Toronto sit at 2.6 months of inventory, sell at 100% of asking, and move in 27 days — that’s a seller’s market. Detached is at 4.3 months, which is balanced and stabilized. Condo apartments are at 5.5 months, selling at 96% of asking with nearly 40 days on market — that favours buyers. Anyone describing “the Toronto market” as one thing is oversimplifying to the point of being wrong.
Have Toronto home prices bottomed out yet?
Detached homes at 4.3 months of inventory look stabilized — if that level holds, it’s reasonable to say detached has found its floor in the City of Toronto. Semi-detached at 2.6 months is already tightening. Condo apartments and condo townhouses, at 5.5 and 5.6 months, remain in territory where downward price pressure can persist. So the honest answer is: some property types likely have, others likely haven’t. Watch what happens after Labour Day — that wave of new listings and whether buyers absorb it will be the clearest signal we get this year.
Why are new listings falling so much in 2026?
New listings are down 15.5% year-to-date — roughly 7,500 fewer listings than the same period last year. The main reason is that sellers aren’t willing to accept current pricing. Many tried listing in 2024 or 2025, didn’t get their number, and pulled the listing. Others converted investment properties to rentals instead of selling. These are pent-up sellers, not absent ones. If prices tick up meaningfully, a portion of them return to the market — which is what caps how fast any price recovery can move.
Is now a good time to buy a home in Toronto?
For end-user buyers, conditions are more favourable than they’ve been in years. Sellers who list in slower months often need to sell rather than want to sell, which creates negotiating room. Condo buyers have the most leverage — 5.5 months of inventory and properties selling at 96% of asking. Freehold buyers face more competition, particularly in semi-detached where the average property still sells at full asking price. The right answer depends on your timeline, your financing, and which segment you’re shopping in — not on a citywide average.
Why do condo price headlines say −10% when you’re reporting −2%?
Because citywide averages mix the 416 and 905, and mix all condo sizes together. In the City of Toronto specifically, condo apartments came in at −2.1% year-over-year in August, and have shown roughly that figure for several months running. The bigger declines show up in the 905 and in smaller investor-style units. What most buyers and sellers actually experience day-to-day is closer to 5–8% softening depending on the building and unit type — not the 10%+ that headlines built on blended averages suggest.
What should I watch to know where the market is heading?
Months of inventory, broken down by property type and neighbourhood. Not average price. Price is a lagging indicator — it moves after supply and demand have already shifted. Under 3 months of inventory typically means prices rise. Four to six months means flat. Seven-plus means falling. Track that number for the specific segment you’re in and you’ll see changes coming months before they show up in price headlines.
Every market is different.
So is your situation.
Averages don’t buy or sell homes — people do. If you’d like to talk through what these numbers actually mean for your street, your building, or your timeline, I’m one click away.
Let’s Talk About Your Situation →Every year around this time, the market gets quiet and then loud again in the space of about two weeks. August empties out. Then Labour Day passes and suddenly there are listings everywhere and buyers who’ve been waiting all summer.
That transition is where the fall market gets decided. And this year it matters more than usual, because we’re at a genuine inflection point. New listings have fallen every single month of 2026. Sales are holding. Semi-detached is already back in seller’s territory. Detached looks stabilized. Condos still favour buyers.
What we don’t know yet is whether the demand side shows up in September the way it needs to. If it does, this is the moment the market turned and most people missed it. If it doesn’t, we’re looking at another year of sideways.
“August tells you almost nothing. September tells you everything. Pay attention over the next three weeks — that’s where the rest of 2026 gets written.”
If you’re weighing a move this fall, the buyer’s guide and seller’s guide walk through what these specific conditions mean for your situation.
See you next month.
Sales Representative · Zolo Realty Brokerage · Licensed in Ontario (RECO #5035461)
Toronto real estate agent specializing in first-time buyers and families across the GTA. 80+ five-star reviews · 100+ clients · $25M+ in completed transactions.