Everyone wants a simple answer. Are rates going up or down?
The problem is — the banks can’t even agree. And I think that’s actually the most important thing to understand right now.
What We Know About Inflation
April inflation came in at 2.8%. Nobody was shocked. The Bank of Canada basically telegraphed it in their last announcement.
The big driver? Energy prices — up 19.2%. You felt it at the pump. We all did.
But here’s the nuance most people miss: core inflation barely moved. The spike isn’t broad-based — it’s concentrated. That matters a lot when you’re trying to predict what the Bank of Canada will do next.
The Problem the Bank of Canada Is Sitting With
On one hand, inflation is still above their 2% target. That’s an argument for keeping rates firm — or even nudging them up.
On the other hand? Canada lost 18,000 jobs in April. Unemployment climbed from 6.7% to 6.9%. The economy isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders.
Raise rates to fight inflation in an economy that’s already softening?
Or hold — and risk inflation creeping higher?
That tension is exactly why the forecasts are all over the place right now.
What the Big Banks Are Actually Projecting
Here’s an honest breakdown of where Canada’s major banks currently stand — and they’re not aligned:
*Forecasts as at: CIBC (Mar 17), NBC (Apr 8), RBC (Apr), Scotia (Mar 24), TD (Apr), BMO (Apr 17)
So we have everything from “nothing changes” to “rates go up a full point.” That’s not a consensus — that’s a coin flip with extra steps.
The bottom line: 5 of 6 major banks expect no changes for the rest of 2026. The divergence starts in 2027.
What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling
Rates are no longer the headline. And honestly? That’s a good thing.
When every Bank of Canada announcement would freeze buyers and shake seller confidence, decision-making was impossible. The conversation was always about rates — never about the actual home.
Right now, the uncertainty has shifted to housing prices. That’s a healthier place for the market to be.
The 3-year fixed is still the crowd favourite right now. Why? Uncertainty. People want to know their number. I get it — and it’s still a smart call for most buyers.
“The people who win in real estate aren’t the ones who wait for a perfect rate environment.”— Cag Icer, Toronto Real Estate
My Take
Nobody has a crystal ball. Not the banks. Not me.
But here’s what I do know: the buyers and sellers who come out ahead are the ones who understand the market well enough to act with confidence when the opportunity shows up — not the ones still waiting for rates to be “perfect.”
The question isn’t “what are rates going to do?”
The better question is: what does this market mean for your specific situation right now?
That’s the conversation worth having.
Sales Representative · Zolo Realty Brokerage · Licensed in Ontario (RECO #5035461)
Toronto real estate agent specializing in first-time buyers and families across the GTA. 80+ five-star reviews · 100+ clients · $25M+ in completed transactions.